|
The industry consensus forecast released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates that by 2014 international aviation will handle 38 million tonnes of air cargo, up 12.5 million tonnes from the 26 million tonnes carried in 2009. International freight volumes are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.2% over the forecast period.
Excluding the impact of the rapid post recession rebound in 2010, for the 2011-2014 period, the consensus view for air freight is that it will stabilize at 5% CAGR. This is slightly below the forecast growth in world trade (6%) suggesting a still conservative outlook after the recession shock and possibly some loss of market share to sea shipping.
The top five fastest growing international freight markets over 2009-2014 will be Hong Kong (12.3%), China (11.7%), Vietnam (11.4%), Taiwan (11.3%), Russian Federation (11.0%). By 2014, the largest international freight markets will be the US (8.8 milli on tonnes), Hong Kong (5.4 million tonnes), Germany (4.4 million tonnes), Japan (4.4 million tonnes) and China (3.8 million tonnes). T
he volume growth expected in China and Hong Kong will account for a third of global volume growth over the period to 2014. The Asia Pacific's region will see the highest growth rate for international freight at 9.8% with Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan comprising the region's top five markets
|
