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Intra-Asian trade that held out
hopes for the luckless global
shipping industry that has waited
long for a recovery in trade may now
be resigned to record a slower
growth as the severe acute
respiratory syndrome (Sars) epidemic
takes a toll on Asian economies.
With hardest hit by the epidemic
affecting countries like China,
Vietnam, Singapore, S Korea,
Malaysia, Thailand and more recent
the Philippines, expectations are
that the intra-Asian trade, that has
recorded strong growths in recent
years, will slow down.
Already two major global shipping
lines, Maersk and Mitsui OSK have
revised their earlier forecasts and
expect only a level of growth no
more than what was achieved in 2002.
Several other shipping lines that
have strong network in the
intra-Asian trade as well as East
Asia-US have also lowered their
expectations after forecasting
robust growth ahead.
The shipping industry that had often
talked about restoring the fallen
growth is now left worrying about
the ramifications of the outbreak of
the severe acute respiratory
syndrome (Sars) illness.
According to a recent report by the
World Trade Organisation global
trade in volume terms is forecast to
increase by less than 3% in 2003 but
it warned the estimates were marked
by downside risks due to the
continued sluggishness of the world
economy and the effects of the
outbreak of severe acute respiratory
syndrome.
Given the current prognosis that the
deadly illness is expected to have
in the economies in the region, the
shipping industry may once again
find itself on a difficult growth
path for another year.
The impact of the epidemic dashes
virtually nullifies the hopes that
the cessation of the US-led war on
Iraq would foster positive growth in
trade and expand the demand for
shipping.
Ships are being quarantined at all
Asian majors ports, including Port
Klang and Penang.
Ships serving between ports in the
Sars-affected countries, which
incidentally make up the largest
group of vessel-type calling at
local ports, are particularly being
targeted.
Ships are not allowed to dock
without health clearance and must
wait at the anchorages before such
clearance is given.
The waiting time can sometimes leave
shipowners with hefty bills -
anything between USD15,000 to
USD40,000 per day.
Thousands of crews on board vessels
trading in this region have been
denied shore leave. Many crew
members too are refusing to serve
onboard vessels calling at ports of
countries that are seriously
affected by the illness.
This has affected crew supply lines
and created operational management
problems to shipping lines and ship
management companies.
The vibrant cruise industry in the
region has drifted away looking for
safer waters as cruise vessels that
could load up to 2,000 passengers
were left virtually empty.
If the outbreak worsens, there is
even fear that ships may not be
allowed to load or unload cargo from
or to ports in the affected
countries, a development which could
bring chaos in the transportation
and logistics supply line and bring
woes to world shipping lines.
Meanwhile, the air freighting industry which saw an unexpected surge in
demand early this year, just before the outbreak of the US-led war on Iraq,
is now witnessing a dramatic decline in demand.
The chairman of the Air Freight Association of Malaysia, Walter Culas
confirmed the air cargo movements have dropped significantly.
The huge cutback in services by airlines to Sars-affected countries has
reduced belly-load space for air cargo in passenger aircraft.
The world's airlines have been meeting in the Thai capital, Bangkok, to draw
up battle plans in the fight against the SARS virus.
As the disease spreads, members of the International Air Transport
Association have been talking with the World Health Organization and are
calling for greater help and from governments.
"The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome on the global air transport
industry has been devastating," said Kevin Dobby, IATA's Corporate Secretary
who heads the association's Sars Task Force.
"The industry is completely engaged with the WHO and will do whatever is
necessary to fight the spread of Sars. This is our number one priority."
Dobby said the meeting heard some encouraging news from the WHO.
"We were told that Sars is transmitted by droplets through close person to
person contact and not through the air. We were also reassured that the
disease is communicable only after symptoms of the disease appear.
"As a result the WHO reassured the industry that the screening procedures
for passengers being implemented at airports are effective. As evidence, of
the 200 million travelers who have boarded aircraft since the beginning of
this crisis, there have been less than five cases of possible transmission
in the cabin and these were on flights that occurred before screening
procedures were put in place," Dobby explained.
"As we see screening procedures intensifying around the world with
questioning of passengers and body temperature checks it is clear that air
travel is being made even safer.
IATA wants a coordinated support and understanding of governments.
In the first instance, this means avoiding the imposition of reactionary and
in-efficient counter measures. This is a global problem, requiring a global
solution, it said. |
