The recent rapid growth of container ships is expected to deliver a severely over-capacity market.

The growth, according to Clarkson Research Studies has added as much capacity to its fleet over the past 18 months as it did during the first 18 years.

This statistic from analysts at Clarkson Research Studies predicts that in a further 18 months, the containership fleet could represent more than six million TEUs.

At present the containership fleet capacity is 5.372 million TEUs, but newbuilding schedules mean that capacity representing a further 417,500 TEUs will be delivered before the end of the year.

This is the equivalent of 10 post-panamax ships coming on line every month, said the analysts.

Forecasts from Clarkson’s Container Intelligence Monthly indicate that the containership fleet is set to grow by 12 per cent in 2001, with the container capable fleet as a whole expected to expand by around 8.8 per cent this year.

These figures however, contrast sharply against the forecast trade growth of just over 5 per cent.

“A fleet growth of almost 9 per cent will leave our supply-demand balance at a distinctly unhealthy 4 per cent in favour of supply, its worst position since 1998,” said the analysts.

The slower growth in trade, has left containerships plying the transpacific routes looking at ‘the most disappointing summer peak season for three years’, said Clarkson Research Studies.

Meanwhile, in the Europe/Asia trades, which enjoyed a bumper year in 2000, are also suffering sharp decline in some freight rates.

This is being made worse by the market having to absorb a new service string started this summer by the New World Alliance, and the introduction of much larger ships by CMA CGM.