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Despite the depressed prognosis of
demand for maritime transportation,
the world trade in volume terms,
according to the World Trade
Organisation, is forecast to expand
by 5.7 per cent in 2003, up from
this year's projected increase of
1.6 per cent.
However, the growth for this year is
expected global trade for the
present year to increase by only 1
per cent in volume and by 2 per cent
in value.
WTO lead economist, Karl- Michael
Finger, said recent estimates by the
IMF of global trade expanding by 6.2
per cent in 2003 "looks reasonable
to us" if projections of global
output increasing next year by 2.8
per cent held up.
Meanwhile, the UN report Global
Economic Outlook, said it expected
the world economy to grow by 1.7 per
cent in 2002 and by 2.9 per cent
next year.
The forecasts nevertheless warns the
growth targets are subject to a
number of uncertainties including
mounting geopolitical tensions in
the Middle East and an abrupt
adjustment in trade imbalances with
a sharp reversal of the US external
deficit and accompanied by a
substantial devaluation of the
dollar.
The recovery in the growth of world
trade, however, is expected to be
uneven and is likely to worsen
imbalances across regions and
countries, the outlook report says.
But concerning the consequences of a
possible a military operation in the
Gulf against Iraq, UN analysts said
it could have a wide range of
plausible outcomes.
The UN economists said a repeat of
the 1991 intervention code named
Desert Storm under one scenario
"could boost economic growth in the
United States as well as of the
world economy by lifting consumer
and investor confidence, propping up
equity markets, and lowering the
price of oil".
Another scenario, however, maintains
that new uncertainties will continue
to depress confidence and that the
financial costs of such a military
operation will crowd out business
investment and lead to lower
potential growth for the world
economy.
But after the decline of 1.6% in
2001, the worst performance in
nearly two decades, the projections
on the trade front despite the
worrisome risks offer promise for
the sluggish global economy.
Supachai Panitchpakdi, WTO
director-general, said in a
statement "the disappointing trade
figures for 2001 and the first half
of 2002 underscore the importance of
making progress" in the Doha global
trade negotiations.
In 2001, the value of world
merchandise trade declined by 4.5
per cent to US$5.9trn, while trade
in commercial services, which
includes transportation, and
insurance, also dipped by 0.5 per
cent to US$1.4trn, the WTO said.
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