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The
global container fleet overcapacity that
contributed to last year’s dramatic decline in
ocean freight rates is set to continue, despite
predictions of a revival in trade growth next
year.
Paul
Bingham, MD of IHS Global Insight’s global
commerce and transportation group, believed
volumes would start to improve by the end of the
year and reach a growth rate of 5% during 2010,
driven by increased consumption, inventory
restocking and improved credit availability.
And, IHS figures estimate, annual growth between
2009 and 2013, will average around 4%.
However, figures from Lloyd’s Register Fairplay
show that the global container fleet will grow
by around 9% a year - despite ship scrapping.
"There is no question that oversupply of vessels
on a sustained basis will help suppress the
rates shippers will have to pay," said Bingham.
He added that low rates would also support trade
growth and continued globalisation, which had
been questioned because of the high cost of
fuel, increasing protectionism - fuelled by
recession - and lack of trade finance.
"In fact [low rates] will also contribute to the
resistance of the global economy to any sort of
reversed globalisation impacts from factors such
as the fuel price spikes we saw last summer,"
said Bingham.
"We think [low rates] will act as a boost to
facilitate and support the return to growth of
trade in the world, but is not significant
enough on its own."
Source: IFW
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