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The
need to scrap more vessels and cancel as many
new building contracts as possible becomes even
more urgent as 2009 nears its end. According to
Allied Shipbroking’s latest weekly report, the
global orderbook for all ship types equals to
more than 4,800 vessels, with expected
deliveries from 2009 and up to 2012.
During this year, there are expected deliveries
of 690 dry bulk vessels, with their numbers
almost doubling at 1,273 in 2010, before
dropping to 940 in 2011 and even lower at 345 in
2012.
As
far as tankers are concerned, owners are
expected to accept deliveries of 508 in 2009,
600 in 2010, 400 in 2011 and just 56 in 2012. As
for particular vessel types, a record 146
capesizes will be added this year, equal to 28
percent of the fleet, according to Fearnley
Consultants A/S.
With such unprecedented numbers of new
buildings, it’s bound that a part of them will
face – or is already facing – financing
troubles, something which many cash-rich ship
owners are looking to take advantage and secure
some value deals.
For
instance, as Hellenic Shipping News previously
reported, NJ Goulandris bought three tankers
from Metrostar, with all vessels scheduled for
delivery before the end of 2009. Besides,
Hellenic ship owners, Chinese owners have been
looking out for such opportunities throughout
the year, investing aggressively in newly built
vessels.
Last week, National Bank of Greece predicted
that new building cancellations will reach about
40% of the total orderbook, which means that 100
million dwt will never reach the water. This,
coupled with an estimated 70 million dwt of
scrapping of older tonnage, could allow for a
gradual recovery of dry bulk usage, close to the
10-year average of 87% of available hiring days.
Should this scenario come through, dry bulk
rates will drop below 2,000 points during 2010
and recover higher than 3,000 points during
2011, which could be deemed as very
satisfactory, should one consider the current
imbalance in the market.
The biggest-ever order book for new carriers,
according to Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay, may hurt
profits at shipping lines while providing higher
returns for traders. Rates for capesizes have
fluctuated more than 50 percent in seven of the
past eight years. Earlier this month, BIMCO said
that the global fleet has already grown by 4.2%
this year. Expected increase in gross dry bulk
ship supply was scheduled to be 71.3 million DWT,
equal to 17% of active dry cargo fleet. In terms
of tonnage, the total bulk fleet still to come
on stream so far in 2009 exceeds that of 2008 as
a whole. On top of the tonnage already
delivered, 46.1 million DWT over the next 5
months is due to leave the yards and enter into
the active fleet.
“The monthly average of delivered tonnage in the
first seven months of 2009 was 3.5 million DWT.
That average figure has to go up to 9 million
DWT during the last 5 months if the total
scheduled order-book is to be delivered before
year-end. Tendencies to some delays have
materialized, but can still be considered
insignificant. The delayed tonnage has been
added on to the remaining deliveries to
calculate the monthly average” BIMCO said.
Since the low-point of the BDI in December 2008
and January 2009, demand has surprised on the
upside and has returned the BDI to a more
“normal” level above 2,000. It should be noted
that this has happened while the active fleet
has grown by a significant 17.7 million DWT.
This supply side pressure is bound to affect
rates downwards, especially if this is coupled
with an anticipated weaker demand.
So far, 6.8 million DWT has been demolished in
2009. And that figure is bound to increase due
to the scrapping potential of the bulker fleet.
67.5 million DWT is more than 25 years old.
Moreover, very low scrapping during the most
recent super-cycle has resulted in an overhang
of old tonnage still in business. This has left
the average scrapping age in recent years closer
to 30 years rather than 25 years of age.
Increased scrapping is deemed necessary to
prevent considerable weakening of the market
balance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
News Worldwide
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